Unipolar Patronage to Strategic Liability? Reassessing U.S Support for Israel in an Era of Great Power Rivalry

Abstract

The long-standing cornerstone of Washington's Middle East strategy, the U.S.-Israel partnership, is under more scrutiny than ever before as great power competition against China and Russia redefines American strategic objectives.   This article reexamines whether Israel is an essential ally or is becoming a geopolitical liability in an era of energy transitions, multipolarity, and the end of U.S. unipolar hegemony.   Based on current Israeli innovation linkages with Beijing, cable leaks, and defense spending assessments (SIPRI 2023), we continue to believe that three policy developments are rewriting the alliance: (1) Israel's heightened collaboration with the BRICS countries, particularly in the sale of AI and drone technology to China; (2) the erosion of bipartisan congressional support as a result of ideological shifts across generations (Pew 2023); (3) the contradiction between Israel's stringent defense strategy and the US's insistence that Arab allies limit Iranian expansion. Mearsheimer's (2021) "Strategic Overextension" lens is used in the research to pinpoint underlying tensions in U.S. Israeli relations as intelligence sharing and military interoperability grow. It, therefore, recommends a move toward interest-based conditionality collaboration and away from unqualified patronage.   The findings shed light on how long allies last after changes in power and offer suggestions for strategy in the management of Middle Eastern alliances in the context of the US-China rivalry.