Financial Mathematical Model for Optimizing MSME Cash Flow Using Annuities and Micro Payment Scheme Simulations

Misgiyati; Agus Sutrisno; Dorrah Azis; Nonik Mega Sapitri; La Zakaria

doi:10.59890/ijsas.v3i12.247

Authors

Misgiyati Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Lampung University
Agus Sutrisno Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Lampung University
Dorrah Azis Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Lampung University
Nonik Mega Sapitri Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Lampung University
La Zakaria Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Lampung University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59890/ijsas.v3i12.247

Keywords:

MSMEs, Cash Flow, Annuities, Numerical Simulation, Microfinance, Murabahah

Abstract

MSMEs contribute significantly to the national GDP and employment, but they still face serious challenges in managing cash flow and accessing financing. Low financial literacy, particularly regarding the concept of annuities and financing schemes, often leads to unstable business liquidity. This study aims to develop an adaptive annuity-based financial mathematical model to help MSMEs plan cash flows, process microfinance schemes, and validate its effectiveness through a case study. The research methods include mathematical modeling, numerical analysis, spreadsheet/Python-based computational simulations, and verification on MSMEs in the food sector in Bandar Lampung. The simulation results indicate that business surplus can be used as a basis for installment financing with an annuity approach, both conventional and sharia. The case study on the "Bulek" Meatball MSME shows that with an average surplus of IDR 2,421,875 per month, the MSME is eligible to take out murabahah financing worth IDR 50,000,000 with a 15% margin for a 24-month term, because the fixed installment of IDR 2,395,833 is still within the business's surplus capacity. This research contributes to the development of applied financial mathematics theory, provides practical tools in the form of interactive simulations, and produces policy recommendations for microfinance institutions to be more adaptive to the cash flow patterns of MSMEs.

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